Change, change, change

To what though – that is the question

The catastrophic evisceration of Labour council seats in both the latest English local elections and the Welsh and Scottish assemblies is the latest example of the restless, irritated, impatient dissatisfaction of Britons with their lot, and a belief that ‘the establishment’ is to blame. It’s a dissatisfaction that’s an Anglocentric version of what can be seen in much of the developed world.

It’s also very much in line with voting patterns of the last decade, whatever or whoever was being voted for.

The voters basically don’t like what they see, blame the current incumbents, vote for whoever promises to change it, then vote them out when they don’t deliver. Next.

It’s always about change. And quickly.

So with Brexit, far and away the most significant slogan was, ‘Take Back Control.’ Who from – well the Brexiteers successfully laid that at the door of the EU. But in the negotiations that followed not much changed, so in comes the buccaneering Boris Johnson who says he will sweep aside the ‘deep state’ or whatever and – with another superb three-word slogan – ‘get Brexit done’.

So, hurry up and change – let’s ‘Get Brexit Done’. But when we get it done, what changes? Our passports change colour, but the economy stagnates along with living standards, and while Europeans stop coming in and often go home, immigration soars from elsewhere. Meanwhile people in ‘the establishment’ are still behaving badly.

OK then say the voters, let’s give this Tory bunch a good kicking, and vote for another bunch, who can’t be bothered with a three-word slogan and go straight for one word – ‘Change’.

So in Labour comes, and what changes? Sorry, that question’s rhetorical of course. Not much, and then enter stage right are all sorts of the usual ‘establishment’ cock-ups and nonsenses.

Which brings us to the latest elections. Who better to promise ‘change’ than people who’ve never been in power – they haven’t had the chance to fail, haven’t yet broken their absurdly extravagant promises, so screw it say the voters, let’s give them a go. So, here we are, with the insurgent Greens and Reform surging, especially Reform.

But, whatever the politics, the thread is always ‘change’ - drawing a line from Brexit, through Boris, to Starmer, and now to Farage/Polanski.

What change? How many Reform or Green voters really know beyond the vaguest outline what either stand for – or frankly care? Whatever. The current lot, in this case Starmer and Labour, got the kicking they deserved.

In the film, ‘The Wild Ones’ there’s an iconic scene where the disillusioned Marlon Brando character, Johnny, is asked “Hey Johnny, what are you rebelling against?”, he answers “Whaddaya got?” Here it’s, “Hey voter, what change are you voting for?”, they answer “Whaddaya got?”

And there’s the problem. In the broadest terms what the voter wants is sort of clear – secure job, decent home, education for their kids, reliable healthcare, blah, blah, blah, and they don’t think they’re getting it. But that doesn’t really get us very far does it? How do we get to that promised land?

What’s clear I think is that none of the insurgent parties know. Their promises don’t add up, literally or metaphorically, but the current mood of the electorate is a bit, so what? The promise of change is enough for now. The current lot are rubbish, so let’s swipe right to something new and see what we get.

All this is aided by the deep, almost bottomless, lack of charisma of Keir Starmer. People say the private Starmer is a wonderful guy. Here’s a tip – whenever anyone tells you that someone is charming etc in private, then they are really acknowledging they have a problem in public. And for a politician it’s the public bit that matters.

Not so Polanski or Farage. I have to say their charisma entirely escapes me, but I have to acknowledge that for many it’s real enough. So charisma, no record to defend, and the promise of magical change to overcome the discredited ‘establishment’. That’ll do for now.

The trouble is it won’t solve anything. The country is indeed in in trouble, with deep systemic problems, but there are no easy answers, and certainly none that don’t involve sacrifice on the part of most of the electorate, including therefore those who might vote for them.

And neither the Greens nor Reform are seeking sacrifices from any group that aren’t already favourite whipping boys, whether its billionaires or illegal immigrants. In former Prime Minister Theresa May’s words there is no ‘magic money tree’ out there, no deep well of rich businessmen from which to easily siphon off a few billions, no trillions of inefficient public spending.

So there’s no tap Polanski or Farage can turn on – they are bound to disappoint those simply banking on change for change’s sake.

Back in 1940 Churchill was able to level with the British people at our time of existential crisis by stating, “I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.”

Now the crisis facing Britain then was obvious enough, and you can ask things in wartime – as we are seeing in Ukraine – you can’t ask in peacetime. But the point remains – the country is in trouble, and there is no easy way out of it that isn’t going to involve all of us having to pay some portion of the price.

In his inaugural address in 1961, US President Jack Kennedy famously said, “And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you--ask what you can do for your country.”

Who of our current crop of politicians could say that and not attract ridicule and derision?

But regardless, something of that spirit is what’s needed. Someone with the charisma to say something like that, but just as importantly, with a vision and a plan to go with it, that makes us willing to go along with them - that the gain will be worth the pain.

For the tragedy is that the upside to the electorate’s desire for change was, I believe, a willingness to accept some hard choices at the beginning of the Labour administration. But Labour blew it. As we’ve seen Starmer not only lacks charisma, but he also lacks vision and a plan.

In 1945, with an exhausted, impoverished Britain on its knees in a turbulent world, there was another uncharismatic Labour Prime Minister, Clement Atlee. However, he was a man with a plan, as well as a strong team around him in a party with a vision, and remarkable things happened.

Of course history doesn’t repeat itself, but still provides lessons to guide us. What has brought Labour down was this combination of lack of charisma, vision, strategy and a clear plan. At the point where inspiration was needed they offered waffle and u-turns.

Of course, the discouraging reality is that change is really hard in a massively indebted, sophisticated, complex economy, and one that’s become over-bureaucratised and rule-bound. Turning this particular supertanker from its lumbering course will be heartbreakingly hard as well as slow, and anyone who offers an easy answer can be dismissed as a conman.

Hence it’s even more important that along with inspiring and harnessing a willingness to accept tough change there comes a realism and clarity to go alongside charisma – but charisma harnessed to a strategy to do more than get elected.

There’s an old English proverb saying, ‘Cometh the hour, cometh the man’ (or woman). The hour has certainly cometh.