State capture of a superpower

There is no secret to this playbook

Like one of those hidden picture mosaics, where the image reveals itself as you fill in the dots, the real nature of the Trump administration is increasingly clear.

Firstly though, what is state capture? Many commentators are calling what’s happening a ‘coup’ and I can see why, but I think that’s wrong. He was elected, and what he’s doing is in broad terms what he said he’d do – hence his poll numbers are pretty good right now.

What is happening is state capture, using that election victory as the platform to remodel state institutions so as to introduce permanent change that cannot be reversed through normal democratic means. We have current European examples, notably Hungary and Turkey and plenty of historical examples. One feature they mostly share is that elections may continue, but are essentially pointless because the ruling party will win, and anyway the system is organised and staffed to be at their service.

This has not yet happened to the US, but elements of state capture are underway, and quite consciously and deliberately so. Trump believes, in his words, that the constitution 'Allows me to do whatever I want' and that when it comes to America says, ‘I alone can fix it.’ Behind him a group of oligarchs think democracy in any sense we would accept it has had its day.

The State Capture strategy

It shows two major lines of effort, complementary and overlapping but not identical. On the one hand we have Trump 2.0, not so different from the original, who is still driven by his pathologies – narcissistic, egotistical, mean, thin-skinned, amoral. That should not downplay his brutal effectiveness, but it has also always limited it. Beyond gut feelings and instinctive support for rich men, authoritarianism, isolationism, and protectionism, there is no Trump doctrine or philosophy to enable its implementation – just an ill-disciplined, capriciousness from the man who would be king.

But the second line of effort is very much thought through and being enacted at speed. Much of it relates to Project 2025, with its vision of a remodelled Federal Government under the absolute control of the president, enacting right-wing policies and dismantling the administrative state. Many of its authors are now in positions of power. For now, at least, Project 2025 aligns almost seamlessly with the desires of the Trump-backing oligarchs, including Elon Musk, with their boundless arrogance and aim of freedom from any control, tax and a hatred of federal government.

The counter-establishment and counter-enlightenment

Aside from a clear strategy for what they want, they have a plan for how to get it, hence the ‘shock and awe’, ‘flood the zone’ tactic. Brought to public prominence by Trump advisor and alt right figure, Steve Bannon, it has more intellectual heft from the writings of thinkers like Curtis Yarvin. Simplifying a lot of verbiage, Yarvin believes democracy is a busted flush and what’s needed is a form of new Caesar/monarch to run the show.

His ideas, along with those of other similar figures, is sometimes labelled the ‘dark enlightenment’ and has attracted the attention and approval of key Trumpite figures, including the Vice President, JD Vance, and billionaires such as Peter Thiel. Of most interest in the context of this substack is his suggestions on taking power.

A Vox article in 2022 noted that Yarvin believed a would-be dictator should campaign openly on the aim, saying, “If I’m elected, I’m gonna assume absolute power in Washington and rebuild the government.” Once elected though, speed was of the essence, telling an interviewer, “The speed that this happens with has to take everyone’s breath away. It should just execute at a rate that totally baffles its enemies.”

The Playbook: Start with speed

In an interview he argued, “You should be executing executive power from day one in a totally emergency fashion. You don’t want to take control of these agencies through appointments, you want to defund them. You want them to totally cease to exist.” He even coined an acronym: RAGE. Retire All Government Employees.

You should have the picture by now. Musk, Bannon, Project 2025 and Yarvin may all have arrived here by different routes, but they are now very much on the same page. How deeply Trump grasps or cares about the thinking behind this is arguable, but as long as it helps him be king and they give him all the credit he’ll be fine with letting them crack on. JD Vance on the other hand knows exactly what’s happening. He surely has an eye on 2028.

So that’s a key step in the state capture playbook. Move fast, maintain momentum, and keep your opponents off-balance.

The Playbook: The key levers of power

Then it’s a matter of capturing the key levers of power. Orban in Hungary, Erdogan in Turkey have done it, and Poland were one narrow election defeat from the Law and Justice Party achieving the same. Orban of course is much admired by Trump and the hard right.

Among those critical levers are justice, law enforcement and the media.

The Playbook: Justice

The recent moves on justice are both part of the current campaign and much assisted by previous work on politicising the judiciary. In 2002 the Supreme Court ended restrictions on judges expressing their political views while campaigning for election, and ever since judges are increasingly elected on their politics not judicial expertise.

The Republicans were first to seize on capturing and politicising the justice system as a goal. Although both sides now do it, they have proven far better at getting their people into office, often with the help of eye-watering sums of dark money cash. There are still a lot of independent-thinking judges out there but the direction of travel is clear.

The impact has been most obvious in the Supreme Court, with its Trump-supporting super-majority, that can be generally relied on – albeit not 100% of the time - to bend the knee while putting up the appropriate smokescreen of self-justifying legalese. Having already declared a president immune from prosecution for all official acts, they have flung the door open for unfettered power.

Now, with his return to power, Trump controls the Justice Department, and the intent to weaponise it is very clear. Career lawyers involved in the January 6 investigations have been sacked, while other senior officials forced to move from key to lesser posts.

One of his more slavish adherents, Pam Bondi, is now Attorney General, and announced her intent on arrival by claiming in one of a series of memos, ‘The shameful era is now over.’ It’s actually just beginning.

Among the memos was the creation of the ‘Weaponization Working Group’. Quite explicitly it will focus on legal investigations of Trump, the handling of the January 6 riots, as well as other Republican obsessions. It claims, ‘No one who has acted with a righteous spirit and just intentions has any cause for concern about efforts to root out corruption and weaponization.’ Given the starting assumptions of the memo, no sentient being will have any doubt this is a purge of anyone not giving fealty to the new regime, while indulging the retribution that is such a mark of Trump’s personality.

Given that much of what is going on right now is illegal and unconstitutional, and is being challenged in the courts, how Justice responds is important. The signs are not good. On X Vance commented on one federal judge’s ruling, “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power.” Actually, as one of the three co-equal pillars of the US constitution, preventing executive over-reach is exactly what they’re meant to do. However Vance is on record as previously saying a president should defy even the Supreme Court and ignoring judicial rulings is being echoed by others.

Many of the rulings concern Elon Musk, who of course is unelected, acting illegally in so many ways, but the Justice Department is more focussed on enabling him. Bondi’s Justice Department will not be defending the law but defending Trump, as well as exacting payback from his perceived enemies.

The Playbook: Law enforcement

So, with the justice lever having been pulled, what about law enforcement?

A work in progress, but with the intent clear. The current nominee for FBI Director, Kash Patel, is a slavish Trump acolyte and conspiracy theorist, who in a 2023 book called ‘Government Gangsters’ produced a hit list of 60 so-called ‘tyrants’ and said in an interview, “We’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections. We’re going to come after you. Whether it’s criminally or civilly, we’ll figure that out.”

While he waits for senate approval, the FBI is already being turned upside down. Senior career officers have been fired or demoted, and an email was sent out to thousands of FBI agents requiring them to give detail of any and all involvement in the Jan 6 investigations. Some of those involved have already been fired.

Even more ominously if possible, US media is reporting that senior nominees for top intelligence and law enforcement positions now face a loyalty test. At least two individuals, both former officials who were being considered for positions within the intelligence community, were asked to give “yes” or “no” responses to the questions: Was Jan. 6 “an inside job?” And was the 2020 presidential election “stolen?” When the obviously desired answer was not given, they were not selected.

Separately at least two individuals in FBI field offices outside Washington, who were being interviewed for senior positions, were asked similar questions, said one U.S. official familiar with the incidents. The questions included: Who were the “real patriots” on Jan. 6? Who won the 2020 election? Who is your “real boss?”

The Playbook: Media control

Ultimately state capture requires the neutralisation and then control of free and independent media. In countries like Hungary and Turkey, Orban and Erdogan are in more or less complete control, usually through a combination of oligarchic buy-up and using the law to force opposition out of business through court cases, fines and predatory, targeted regulations.

Some elements of this can be seen in the US, but the overall approach has to be more various. Trump has routinely referred to the mainstream media as ‘The Enemies of the People’ and once told a reporter he kept attacking the media so that no-one would trust them.

But where he can use the threat of legal action he does. Often the mere threat of expensive, exhaustive legal action is enough to intimidate and deter those who might otherwise stick their head above the parapet. So, we see ABC News paying up millions in a case they would almost certainly have won if they fought it. A pollster who got a poll honestly but badly wrong has been sued by Trump.

Meta boss, Mark Zuckerberg was warned he would “spend the rest of his life in prison" if he did anything allegedly illegal during the election. Media billionaires took no chances, first stopping their outlets from endorsing Kamala Harris and then, along with other oligarchs offering a substantial bribe to Trump (euphemistically described as a ‘donation’ to his inauguration fund) to try to win favour or at least mitigate any retribution.

The broadcasters are justifiably worried about what’s coming from the Federal Communications Commission, that’s now headed by another Project 2025 zealot and Trump acolyte, Brendan Carr. He has already launched or resurrected investigations into CBS, NBC and ABC, as well as launching distinctly dubious investigations into the publicly funded National Public Radio (NPR) and Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), which he has previously said should be defunded.

Of course, the media landscape in the US is both more various and resilient than Hungary’s or Turkey’s, but it also already includes a lot of tub-thumpers for Trump and rabid purveyors of conspiracy theories and disinformation. Already we can see the system moving to further enhance them. For instance, Hegseth’s Defence Department has ejected from the Pentagon press corps mainstream outlets such as the New York Times, NBC, CNN and the Washington Post, and brought in alt right outfits like Breitbart, OANN, Newsmax and the Daily Caller. We can confidently expect them to sing whatever song Hegseth and Trump want.

And remember how many mocked Trump for renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America? Well, over in the White House the AP News Agency has been banned from presidential news event because it still uses the term Gulf of Mexico instead of Gulf of America. Reporting presidential events is a ‘privilege’ says the White House press secretary – clearly a privilege that can and will be withdrawn if you don’t play the game.

And so it goes on – drip, drip, drip.

So, all three of the key levers for state capture are underway, but there are also further less obvious elements, which are the mark of state capture.

The Playbook: Politicising the military

The US military’s oath of allegiance is to the constitution not the President, and they understand that well, but it’s not at all clear that Trump understands or accepts this. One of his former Chiefs of Staff, General John Kelly recounts Trump asking Kelly, “Why can’t you be like the German generals?” He meant Hitler’s generals. During the election campaign Trump also said in a speech, “I think the bigger problem is the enemy from within… We have some very bad people. We have some sick people, radical left lunatics. And I think they’re the big — and it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military, because they can’t let that happen.”

The very mention of using the military against domestic opposition rings alarm bells.

It’s worth noting how Trump calls all sorts of Americans ‘enemies of the people’ or ‘radical left lunatics, including the media and USAID workers. That’s not to say he plans or will use the army on them, but when you demonise so casually and then mention possibly using the military against those labelled that way, why wouldn’t you be alarmed?

In my last substack I highlighted the vicious treatment of the previous US military’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Mark Milley, including removing his portraits and making him some kind of Soviet-style non-person. The language and actions of the new Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, have left no doubt about the kind of loyalty he expects to the President. Before too long there will have to be a new Chairman. It’s not too hard to imagine the kind of loyalty test they might face.

It's too early to draw conclusions here, but not too early to be concerned.

The Playbook: Rewriting history

George Orwell wrote in 1984, "Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past". Without pushing it too much, it’s not hard to see real significance in the re-writing of January 6 and the ‘stolen election’ myth.

Over the four years of the Biden Presidency, we saw the relentless challenging by Trump of what we all saw with our supposedly lying eyes, culminating with the pardoning of all those convicted of crimes linked to Jan 6. But it has not ended there. Those who investigated are being sacked, and – as noted above – others are facing a loyalty test to say the rioters were patriots and the election was stolen. The world turned upside down. 1984 again: "The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth".

And even if you say yes just to get a job, you are already morally compromised, living a lie – nodding along as your boss talks crap. And more compromises will be demanded, each one a little easier to accept, until you are lost.

The Playbook: Atomisation of resistance

A lot of what Musk is doing is designed to simultaneously make individuals feel afraid and also isolated, to encourage them look out for themselves. Yarvin recommended ‘sending them off with nice pensions so they won’t make too much of a fuss’ and we have seen a little of this with the offer to all federal employees to quit in return for being paid until September 30.

But there’s an iron fist behind this thin velvet glove, as so many ex-Twitter employees remember from Musk’s destructive reforms. Abrupt sackings, whole divisions being destroyed without review or notice, sackings by email, sometimes waking up in the morning to find you’ve lost your job, or turning up to work to find you can’t get in because your security pass or computer access has been withdrawn.

The result is confusion, and understandable fear about your own circumstances. The instinct is to say nothing, keep your head down and just hope the scythe goes over your head – that you will be one of the survivors. Depressing and morale-sapping. The whimsicality and capriciousness of those enacting it all is part of its impact, made especially so when you hear that those who have the temerity to protest are dealt with quickly and brutally.

Musk’s public vindictiveness and threats to those who he thinks have crossed him – including using his global megaphone – has its effect. Would you wish to cross the mean-spirited, richest man in the world, who has the backing of the equally vindictive most powerful man in the world?

The Playbook: The Strong Man fallacy

Part of Trump’s (and others) attraction is the feeling some have that we need a strong man to take over and just get things done, and if that means setting aside all those pesky rules and regulations and just driving on, then so be it. The desire for authoritarian strong men is usually a product of intense frustration, disillusion and anger, and there’s a lot of that about, and not just in the US. In the UK over one-fifth of 18-44 year olds said they’d prefer an unelected leader.

However, as the brilliant Tim Snyder has pointed out, the dangerous assumption such people make is that the strong man is THEIR strong man. That of course is wrong. The unfettered strong man does what he wants, which may coincide with what you want for now, but if it doesn’t stay that way, tough. He is the strong one not you.

This is hardly helped by feeding the egos and arrogance of strong men. In Rome, when a returning victorious general was given a triumphal parade an ‘Auriga’ held a laurel wreath over his head while warning him, ‘Remember you are mortal too.’ In Trump’s America he goes on stage with a backdrop saying, ‘Trump was right about everything’ and it’s put on ball caps. It should not need saying, this is deeply unhealthy both for the people who think it, and the recipient.

The reality remains; by deluding themselves he is THEIR strong man many Americans are OK with Musk and Trump destroying the livelihoods of those damn Washington bureaucrats, because of course it could never happen to them. Dream on.

The result though of dreaming on is being complacent about the guardrails that protect democracy and the rule of law, and allowing them to politicise and weaponise the instruments of power so that they are beyond accountability. In the end strong men demand fealty to their wishes not yours.

Can anything be done?

What is already being shown is that the US system is not as resilient as many thought. As with many democracies under pressure we are finding that it depends on the willingness of its participants to respect norms, precedents and its rules and laws. If they don’t then it is in trouble.

In the US specifically, beyond the executive controlled by the President, the supposedly co-equal pillars of legislative and judicial have been shown to be vulnerable. Congress as currently formed is actively colluding in allowing its leglislative prerogatives to be ignored or usurped, while the judicial system is so politicised as to be an erratic, inconstant constraint on presidential abuses and over-reach.

That doesn’t mean all is lost of course, but does require a lot of people to step up to the scale of the challenge. What’s happening is not business as usual, so the response can’t be either.

The great 18^th century English statesman and philosopher Edmund Burke is famously known for allegedly saying, “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” It’s a good saying, but apparently he didn’t say it. What he did say may not be quite so resonant, but actually is rather more meaningful, “When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”

Interestingly, the context in which he wrote warning of the dangers of nepotism, corruption and abuse of power in the monarchy-dominated parliament of the time. An echo of today perhaps. He argued, “Whilst men are linked together, they easily and speedily communicate the alarm of any evil design. They are enabled to fathom it with common counsel, and to oppose it with united strength. Whereas, when they lie dispersed, without concert, order, or discipline, communication is uncertain, counsel difficult, and resistance impracticable.”

Looking at the US now there seems precious little ‘united strength’. Others can decide for themselves whether we are dealing with bad men or not, but the phrase highlights the consequence of not combining to combat powerful opponents, “When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one…’