This is a wonderful article, I enjoyed reading it! A significant difference between Hitler and Putin’s situation is the political environment they inhabit. When Hitler rose to power, his main focus was to build up the Germany military, and Putin is currently embroiled in an intense conflict.
Ernst Rohm sought to significantly incorporate the Brownshirts into the German military to establish a “People’s Army”. Members of the German military despised this goal and actively made Hitler aware of their discontent. Hitler essentially eliminated Rohm to appease the military caste, pave the path forward for rearmament and as you mentioned eliminate a political rival. Putin is in limbo like stage because he cannot eliminate Prigozhin due to the fact that the Wagner Forces play an indispensable role in the Ukrainian Conflict and Prigozhin’s removal would benefit Ukraine. Putin is stuck in this framework where the inefficiencies of his military has forced him into relying on a figure whose loyalty has come into question.
Thanks Victoria - to be honest, I'm not sure. Since I wrote this Prigozhin has become even more open and assertive for instance suing the Mayor of St Petersburg over permissions for his HQ and praising the videoed and shocking execution of a Wagner member who had apparently switched sides. It's very clear he is blatantly pitching to be a major power within Russia, and with his own power base in the Wagner Group, which cannot be anything other than a rival to the state authorities that normally have a monopoly on authorised violence. As such he has to be a rival to Putin. Currently Putin may feel he has no choice, or feel he can control him, but if the Ukraine conflict continues to go badly and Prigozhin continues to assert his power then he will be a rival. If I was Putin I would be looking to deal with him now.
This is a wonderful article, I enjoyed reading it! A significant difference between Hitler and Putin’s situation is the political environment they inhabit. When Hitler rose to power, his main focus was to build up the Germany military, and Putin is currently embroiled in an intense conflict.
Ernst Rohm sought to significantly incorporate the Brownshirts into the German military to establish a “People’s Army”. Members of the German military despised this goal and actively made Hitler aware of their discontent. Hitler essentially eliminated Rohm to appease the military caste, pave the path forward for rearmament and as you mentioned eliminate a political rival. Putin is in limbo like stage because he cannot eliminate Prigozhin due to the fact that the Wagner Forces play an indispensable role in the Ukrainian Conflict and Prigozhin’s removal would benefit Ukraine. Putin is stuck in this framework where the inefficiencies of his military has forced him into relying on a figure whose loyalty has come into question.
Great piece Mark. Do you really see the Wagner group ceding power to Putin? Or does he already own them? VP
Thanks Victoria - to be honest, I'm not sure. Since I wrote this Prigozhin has become even more open and assertive for instance suing the Mayor of St Petersburg over permissions for his HQ and praising the videoed and shocking execution of a Wagner member who had apparently switched sides. It's very clear he is blatantly pitching to be a major power within Russia, and with his own power base in the Wagner Group, which cannot be anything other than a rival to the state authorities that normally have a monopoly on authorised violence. As such he has to be a rival to Putin. Currently Putin may feel he has no choice, or feel he can control him, but if the Ukraine conflict continues to go badly and Prigozhin continues to assert his power then he will be a rival. If I was Putin I would be looking to deal with him now.